Capitalism and Creditism and Corporatism, Oh My!

submitted by jwithrow.The Fed

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
Capitalism and Creditism and Corporatism, Oh My!

December 26, 2014
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P opened at $2,084 today. Gold is flat around $1,198 per ounce. Oil is still checking in at $56 per barrel. Bitcoin is at $326 per BTC, and the 10-year Treasury rate opened at 2.24% today.

All is quiet in the markets this holiday season. We may look back on this time period in a few years and say that we were presented with a tremendous opportunity to buy beaten down energy and commodity stocks during the tax-loss selling season of 2014. We probably will say that we had a great opportunity to accumulate some gold throughout 2014 as well. Just be sure to follow your asset allocation model if you decide to capitalize on these opportunities.

Yesterday we examined our current economic circumstances and realized that we were employing capitalism but we had no capital! Today we must ask the question: How can you have capitalism without any capital?

The obvious answer is you can’t. It’s like making potato soup without potatoes – try as you might it just won’t work.

So if we don’t have capitalism then what do we have? My answer is that we have some weird blend of creditism and corporatism. Governments have colluded with large corporate interests, especially in the commercial banking sector, to rig the economy in their favor.

Though we could go back further, let’s start our story (from the American perspective) at the end of World War II. Prior to the war governments didn’t think they could do everything they wanted due to financial constraints. That didn’t stop them from doing half of what they wanted to do but it forced them to make a choice. Did they want guns (warfare) or butter (welfare)?

The U.S. came out of WWII looking like gold… literally. The U.S. economy was the least damaged by the war which ravaged Europe and it came out holding the world’s largest stash of gold reserves. This relative economic strength gave U.S. politicians the wrong idea: they started to think they might not need to make any choices. Then President Lyndon Johnson came along and he wasn’t shy about it – guns and butter it will be!

So we got the Vietnam War and the Great Society together! And gold steadily flowed out of the U.S. Treasury until President Nixon pulled the switch-a-roo in 1971 and closed the gold window. All of a sudden the international monetary system became elastic. With no more gold restraint, dollars and yen and pounds started to pile up as central banks and commercial banks discovered they could conjure money into existence largely at will. But this was a different kind of money than the gold-backed variety – it was credit-based.

This credit-based money was extremely popular and the money supply grew 50-fold between World War II and 2008. Everyone got used to a constantly expanding money supply and now both the economy and asset prices are dependent upon it. It is the expansion of credit, not real capital, that supports all of the federal spending programs, all of the wars in the Middle East, the mass imports from China and Vietnam, the new housing developments and shopping malls in Middle America, the massive car lots across the country, most of the skyscrapers dotting the city skies, and current real estate and stock market valuations.

Here’s a fun example: do you know how much debt is still owed on the tax-funded Meadowlands Sports Complex in New Jersey? I’ll tell you: more than $100 million is still owed on the facility. Oh, and I am talking about the old Meadowlands Stadium that was closed and demolished in 2009 to make way for a new $1.6 billion facility now known as MetLife Stadium. New Jersey taxpayers are still on the hook for $100 million on a sports complex that no longer exists! New Jersey built the stadium, used the stadium, and demolished the stadium but never bothered to pay for it.

Such nonsense can only occur in a world of ever-expanding credit-based funny money.

This applies to the massive bank bailouts and banker bonuses that one side of the fictitious aisle rails against just as it applies to the massive welfare programs that the other side of the false political-divide takes issue with. None of it exists without perpetual credit expansion; none of it exists without creditism and corporatism.

Capitalism would have nothing to do with any of it.

It is important to understand that we have only seen one side of the credit cycle within the current monetary system. Credit has been expanding constantly for more than forty years now. But if we look around our world we can clearly see that nothing expands forever. Waves rise then fall. Trees grow then mature. Balloons inflate then pop.

One day credit will have to contract; it is inevitable. What happens when that day comes? Ludwig von Mises, the late Austrian School economist, offered some insight:

“There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

Was he right? Time will tell.

More to come,
Signature

 

 

 

 

 

Joe Withrow
Wayward Philosopher

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the “Great Reset” and the fiat monetary system please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com/. The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

Capitalism Without the Capital

submitted by jwithrow.Adam Smith Plaque

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
Capitalism Without the Capital

December 25, 2014
Hot Springs, VA

Merry Christmas!

The markets are closed today in honor of this wonderful holiday so we have no updates for you in this entry. Check back in with us tomorrow for market updates. We do have an important entry for you today, however. It’s not nearly as important as spending time with your family on Christmas Day but, since you are here nonetheless, we will carry on.

Earlier this month we watched as the U.S. national debt came up behind $18 trillion, whipped into the passing lane without signaling, and sped off into the distance. Where is the national debt going in such a rush? I’m not sure, but I’d wager it’s someplace not worth going to.

As the national debt raced past we noted that total credit market debt has ballooned up to 330% of GDP with considerable help from the Fed’s efforts to pump in $4.3 trillion worth of hot air.

The television analysts accept it all as normal but we must ask the question: How in the world did we get to this point?

Much of the apparent prosperity we have enjoyed over the last several years has been borrowed from the future. The world’s three major central banks – The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan – have each been engaged in an outrageous financial experiment; they have been creating massive amounts of currency out of thin air to purchase government debt by the boat-load.

Remember, debt is nothing more than a promise to pay for present spending with future earnings. These central banks, in collusion with their respective government, are really engaged in a scheme to transfer massive amounts of wealth from the public in the future to themselves in the present. There will be serious consequences to this madness.

It is important to realize that none of this chicanery has anything to do with capitalism… there’s no capital even in sight! The money created by the central banks of the world may act much like real capital, but it is just a clever impersonator.

Capital, according to the Ludwig von Mises Institute, is defined as the goods that were produced by previous stages of production but do not directly satisfy consumer’s needs. In short, capital is real savings and real resources.

Capital formation is actually quite simple – just save more than you consume and you will have capital.

We are currently doing the opposite – we are consuming way more than we produce. That’s how you end up with debt piled to the ceiling. This is true on the macro level (governments, multi-national corporations, etc.) and it is true on the micro level (individuals, local communities). The credit-based money and the massive debt have driven capital into hiding… we suspect for fear of being called a greedy capitalist.

And that, in a nutshell, is the answer to our question: we got to this point by embracing central banking and fiat money thus abandoning capitalism and its sound monetary system.

Sound Money once kept debt and the central planners at bay.

What was the secret?

Sound Money was like your grumpy friend that just won’t ever agree to do anything. You ask him to go to the movies and he says nope. You ask him to go to the ball game and he says he’ll watch it on T.V. You ask him to go to the bar and he says he has beer in the fridge at home already. Eventually you learn there’s nothing you can talk him into doing so you stop trying. That’s why governments and central banks hated Sound Money; it would never agree to any of their best laid plans.

You see, Sound Money could not be infinitely printed by governments or central banks. Originally, before governments got into the money business, money could not be printed at all; it had to be dug out of the ground and then minted into a coin. Later, governments took it upon themselves to stockpile gold in a vault and create paper currencies 100% backed by the gold. Always one to offer something it doesn’t have at a price it cannot sustain, Government reduced the gold backing of its currency over time and then, in 1971, it cut ties to gold altogether. That was the requiem for Sound Money and ever since then there has been absolutely no limits on the amount of currency central banks can create. Which means there has also been absolutely no limit on how much debt governments can rack up.

So here we are.

But just because there have been no limits to all of this economic madness in the short run does not mean there will never again be any limits. History shows that market forces cannot be perpetually suppressed and distorted – eventually the market will win out. The Day of Reckoning will come.

Until the morrow,
Signature

 

 

 

 

 

Joe Withrow
Wayward Philosopher

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the “Great Reset” and the fiat monetary system please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com/. The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

Debt Impedes Economic Recovery

submitted by jwithrow.Great Seal

Debt is nothing more than an obligation to pay for present spending with future earnings.

A little bit of debt used to increase future earnings is a good thing. A little bit of debt used to increase present spending at the expense of future earnings is not a very good thing. A lot of debt used to increase present spending at the expense of future earnings is a good way to make it very difficult for there to be any earnings in the future at all.

At the macroeconomic level, the U.S. has chosen option three. Japan and Europe have done the same.

The great thing about economics is that there is a ‘response’ system built in that maintains a sort of chaotic order in the general market.

When there is significant capital formation within the system, interest rates go down. Decreasing interest rates send a signal that it is a good time to borrow so homes are purchased and businesses expand.

Interest rates then rise as more debt is taken on and thus capital available diminishes. This sends a signal that it is not a good time to borrow so mortgages are paid down and business debt is reduced. This leads to gradual capital formation within the system that will trigger a decrease in interest rates and the cycle perpetuates.

But guess what happens when you have an Ivy League graduate that thinks it is his job to force interest rates lower and keep them suppressed?

That’s right! The market does not receive the proper signal and it looks like it is still a good time to borrow. So even more homes are purchased and businesses keep on expanding.

Then we get the idea that home prices should always go up, stock prices should always go up, businesses should always expand, and GDP should always grow.

And we end up with more debt.

U.S. debt has grown by more than 60% since the financial crisis began in 2008. Global debt has grown by more than 40% in the same time period.

It turns out that a problem of too much debt cannot be solved by taking on more debt.

The events of 2008 sent a signal that it was time to stop borrowing and to liquidate debt but we didn’t listen. The economy will undoubtedly blow up again and the next crisis will be even bigger because the debt is now even bigger.

The only way for the economy to truly recover is for a mass-liquidation of debt to occur. Until then we can expect the Fed to keep fudging the numbers and blaming economic stagnancy on the snow.

We happen to like snow and find it to be much more desirable than the Fed, both economically and ascetically.

The Middle-Class is Fading

submitted by jwithrow.Fire Dollar

The middle-class is fading. Fast.

The jobs that have been lost since the financial system teetered on implosion in 2008 have not come back. Those jobs are not coming back. More education won’t bring them back. More laws won’t bring them back.

The government’s job report says that more and more jobs are being created, but guess what? They are mostly low paid part-time or temporary jobs; they are not the middle management jobs in the high rise buildings.

As for why the middle-class is being wiped out, it’s no mystery. This very same scenario has occurred all throughout history. One can look back as far as the time of the Roman Empire and see that there is nothing new under the sun. History rhymes and those ignorant of history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.

You see, every time the currency of the land has been inflated and debased, the middle-class has been destroyed. Inflation transfers value from those who must work to earn currency to those who control the currency supply.

They don’t tell you this in school. They don’t tell you this in college. They don’t even tell you this if you major in finance or economics. They probably don’t know themselves. So most people never understand what is happening. Their paycheck gets bigger and bigger so they can’t figure out why they can never get ahead. They don’t realize that their bigger paycheck is buying less and less. They don’t understand the difference between nominal income and real income.

In Roman times it was the government that controlled the currency supply. The Romans would collect taxes and tributes from citizens and conquered peoples and they would then melt the precious metal coins and add in cheaper metals such as copper to re-mint more coins of lower value. They would then pay the Roman army with these cheaper coins and pretend that they had the same value as before. The general market caught on to this process and began to charge higher prices for food and goods in response. The middle-class was destroyed over time and eventually the economy collapsed. Then the Empire fell.

In modern times it is the Federal Reserve and the other central banks of the world that control the currency supply. They do this by simply creating currency units from nothing and using the new currency as they see fit. They inject some of this new currency into the banking system, they use some of the new currency to buy government debt, and they inject some of the new currency into the IMF and foreign central banks. This directly leads to more and more debt and an increase in consumer prices across the board.

They are printing currency at will so why is the middle-class working so hard for 2% annual raises?

The rules of the game have changed and those unable to recognize this and adjust accordingly will be wiped out with the middle-class – just as has happened throughout history.

The Economy Can Never Fully Recover as Long as This Remains…

By Paul Rosenberg,

government regulations and business

When I was a young man, the older men I admired were the independent businessmen. Being a corporate suit issuing orders to underlings never appealed to me, but being a successful man who controlled his own life and business… that did.

Perhaps as a result, most of my friends are independent business people of one sort or another. Not long ago, I had a notable conversation with one of them, during which he said:

You know, Paul, business used to be fun. I’d take my children around and show them what we were doing, and explain the differences we’d make.

I waited just a beat as he winced and then continued:

Now, I don’t want to drag my kids into my business. Every time I move, there are regulations, permissions, forms to file. It takes up most of my time, for nothing. Business isn’t fun anymore. If I could find something else, I’d get out.

And this is a man who has been in his business since childhood, who loves to tell stories about it, and who used to enjoy his work immensely. If this guy is looking for the exit, the problem is dire.

It’s pretty obvious why

I have limited faith in government statistics, but there are a few informative ones on this subject:

The US Small Business Administration (SBA) recently reported that the annual cost of complying with government regulations is more than one trillion dollars per year and has been since 2005.

It goes on to report that big businesses (500+ employees), pay about $7,550 per employee to comply with the regulations. Small businesses, on the other hand (up to 20 employees) pay about $10,600 for every person they employ. And this is just one reason why small, independent businesses are being swallowed up by giant corporations.

Also bear in mind that this is just the cost of compliance with federal regulations. States also impose regulations on businesses. So do most of the county and city governments, especially large city governments.

New rules are produced constantly, and the cost of compliance rises constantly. In the US (and many other places), the cost of doing business has long since become prohibitive.

The Work-Arounds

Clever folks always find ways to get around this insanity, of course. But those ways are extra work and probably help relatively few people.

#1: They get rid of their employees

They find niches in their fields that allow them to escape the endless paperwork, penalties, and senselessly wasted time that comes with being an employer. (If you’ve ever had employees, you know what I mean.)

And what of the workers? Well, some get hired by the few related-industry employers that remain, while others have to take a mind-numbing mid-level corporate job just to pay the bills or get insurance. The rest are living on food stamps, disability, or a dozen other welfare programs.

#2: They go offshore

If your business is not resident where the regulators are, they usually can’t say anything about it.

Not many business people have moved abroad, but lots of them have set up offshore companies and are conducting business on the Internet. These people get their lives back… if they can find a way to make it work.

That is the dirty little secret of offshore companies, by the way: It’s not about escaping taxes; it’s about escaping all that ridiculous, insulting, pointless paperwork. No more spending days crunching numbers at tax time, no filing new reports every time you do something. You just take care of your customers and deliver good product. (Which ought to be enough.)

#3: They pay politicians for protection

Why would anyone donate thousands of dollars to a politician unless they expected to get something in return?

Big businesses pay politicians so that they can make a phone call to get problems that arise fixed. Small businesses can’t afford that, and most small business owners have moral problems with bribery.

Legit Is Dead

Unfortunately, the old “American way” of working hard, conducting honest business, and succeeding is gone, dead, and buried. It may still happen from time to time, but infrequently and off the beaten path.

Not long ago, I found this sign posted on a streetlight in Chicago:

business and government regulations

The sign is right – the old “legit” way of doing business is dead. If you want to get ahead these days, you either try to play a game that is rigged against you, you pay politicians to bend the rules for you, or you avoid the situation entirely.

It seems that the best and brightest – the would-be drivers of the economy – are choosing the last option.

What does that say about where things are going?

Paul Rosenberg

[Editor’s Note: Paul Rosenberg is the outside-the-Matrix author of FreemansPerspective.com, a site dedicated to economic freedom, personal independence and privacy. He is also the author of The Great Calendar, a report that breaks down our complex world into an easy-to-understand model. Click here to get your free copy.]

What We Forgot About Free Market Capitalism Part Two

submitted by jwithrow.Mises Capitalism

Failure is just as much a facet of free market capitalism as success is.

In a free market economy, well managed businesses with desired products and services will succeed and poorly managed business with undesired products and services will fail.

Consumers, when well informed, will make decisions based on their individual preferences; they will either buy the highest quality product at the lowest price for which that product is available or they will buy a lower quality product for a price lower than the higher quality product. Consumers are typically not very interested in paying high quality prices for low quality products.

So, in the free market, businesses must constantly strive to either offer the best product at the lowest price or a suitable product at a very low price. This requires businesses to focus on improving efficiency and decreasing costs without sacrificing product quality. If a business cannot offer competitive products at competitive prices then it will not be in business for very long.

This model aligns the interests of both businesses and consumers and creates a self-regulating incentive structure.

In the free market system, businesses have an incentive to offer quality products to customers at the best price and they have a disincentive to offer poor products at poor prices. While this is a simple representation, the incentive structure is one of the core principals underlying the free market system.

But what happens if businesses are not allowed to fail due to government intervention?

We have seen numerous cases of this scenario in recent years. The “too big to fail” banks were propped up by the federal government when they came to the point of failure. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken under receivership by the federal government when they came to the point of failure. General Motors was temporarily taken over and propped up by the federal government when it came to the point of failure.

This is moral hazard.

Oh, and we should probably mention that the federal government cannot actually bail anything out with its own capital. To fund the bail-outs, the government has to appropriate capital from the private sector in the form of tax dollars and it has to borrow money from the Federal Reserve that was created out of thin air.

So the business losses were socialized but the profits remained privatized – this is fascism in action.

By creating moral hazard in this way, the disincentive piece has been removed from the system and the incentive model has shifted away from a consumer focus and to a focus on generating high profits with no regard for risk. Such a model is a win-win for the favored businesses and the government cronies that they support. The losers are everyone else as the economy turns to mush.

Coming full circle, failure is a welcome facet of free market capitalism. Maybe not for the companies’ doing the failing, but failure is a force for creative destruction that serves to weed out the businesses that cannot offer quality products at reasonable prices.

This is why it is ridiculous to claim that any company is “too big to fail” as justification for bail-outs. Sure there would be temporary hardship were the major banks to fail, but this would eventually free up capital and clear the way for sustainable banking practices to be implemented.

Feel free to read more on the matter here and here.

What We Forgot About Free Market Capitalism Part 1

submitted by jwithrow.Rothbard Capitalism

One of the most important elements of free market capitalism is the price system. The capitalist price system provides information on supply and demand in the marketplace and individuals make business and investment decisions based on this information.

The economic system that America now employs is not free market capitalism and there are legions of regulations in place that distort the market pricing system every step of the way.

The most insidious price distortion is the suppression of interest rates.

Interest rates are simply the price of money. Like everything else in the market economy, interest rates are self-regulated by the forces of supply and demand. If there is a high quantity of capital in the system available for lending then interest rates will naturally be low. Low interest rates will entice borrowers to engage in long term financing – purchasing homes, expanding businesses, etc. Interest rates will then naturally rise as the capital available for lending diminishes. High interest rates are not attractive to borrowers so individuals and businesses will focus more on short term projects. This will lead to increased capital formation within the system which will gradually trigger falling interest rates.

But what happens when a central bank suppresses interest rates and keeps them near zero for an extended period of time? Well, this destroys the entire pricing system and distorts the entire market system.

Artificially suppressed interest rates send a false signal – which is exactly why they were suppressed in the first place. Artificially suppressed rates still entice borrowers to take engage in long term financing but this is a Keynesian trap. The problem is that there is not sufficient capital formation in the economy to warrant the low interest rates and thus there is not a true demand for all of the long term projects undertaken.

This is called mal-investment.

“If you build it, they will come” is a great catch phrase in the movies but it’s just not how the real world works.

Despite what the economics textbook says, there is no such thing as a ‘mixed economic system’. There is simply no room for the suppression of interest rates or the distortion of prices in a capitalist system.

There are only two choices:

  1. Free markets
  2. Central planning

Free market capitalism presumes an honest and functional price system that is not manipulated by a central bank.

Oh, we should probably mention how interest rates are suppressed.

The Federal Reserve creates currency units out of thin air and uses them to buy long term Treasury bonds at low rates. What could possibly go wrong?

By the way, you can read more on this topic here, here, and here.

Non-Profit Skepticism

submitted by jwithrow.501c3 Stamp

We think that the idea of non-profit organizations, as the 501(c) code exists, is un-American.

Hold on! Hear us out on this one before you call us heartless capitalists – we have a good reason. Actually several reasons.

The non-profit structure as it currently exists violates the equality under law principle upon which America was founded. 501(c) organizations receive favorable treatment by law relative to for-profit organizations.

But the American vision of limited government was such that it should protect equality under law rather than promote inequality by law. Equal opportunity as we used to say.

Additionally, the 501(c) structure reinforces Marxist principles in the minds of Americans in a very devious way. This we really don’t like.

The Marxist ideology is opposed to profit because it violates their “from each according to ability, to each according to need” credo.

In granting favorable status to non-profit organizations the government is actually supporting the belief that non-profits are more desirable than for-profit organizations. Think about it – why else would 501(c)’s be granted privileges if they weren’t seen as deserving of such favoritism? So in a sneaky kind of way this sows the seeds of Marxism by silently stating that the profit motive is not to be commended while the non-profit motive is superior ideology.

Which brings us to our last point:

The whole non-profit part of 501(c) organizations is fraudulent!

Sure, the organization itself does not show a profit but have you ever looked at the executive salaries at these “non-profit” organizations?

We have.

They are systematically much higher than average wages. MUCH higher.

Sure looks like profit to us.

Now there are some very good non-profit organizations out there. We have donated to some good ones that we knew were good because we knew the people running the show and we could see the charitable work being done. But most of the giant non-profits are frauds and we would steer clear of them. A good rule of thumb is that if a non-profit has a commercial on television then it is probably not worthy of your attention. Otherwise it wouldn’t need a commercial on television.

Also, don’t get us wrong, we like the fact that non-profits are tax-exempt. The less money appropriated by the Feds the better, in our opinion.

But we think that a much better idea would be to get rid of the corporate income tax altogether. Then you wouldn’t have a need for special non-profit treatment. And you might even notice some jobs sneaking back into America also – as long as the corporate income tax was repealed and replaced with nothing.

Of course this is just our humble opinion. Maybe the bureaucrats know better than we do.

Forget the Interest Rate – It’s the Quantity of Interest That Matters

submitted by jwithrow.Mastering Interest

Financial success is all about understanding and mastering interest. You see, there are only three choices when it comes to financial matters:

  • Pay interest
  • Receive interest
  • Forego interest

That’s it.

All you must do to get ahead financially is to arrange your financial affairs such that more interest is coming in than going out.

It is the quantity of interest that’s important. This concept is not often discussed so most folks focus exclusively on the rate of interest instead.

3.5% for a mortgage? This is a great rate!

2.87% for a vehicle loan? We’ll take two!

.05% on a savings account? Well, we suppose something is better than nothing.

So the average person pays interest for their house and their cars and they forego interest when they buy their groceries and pursue entertainment. The interest that they do receive is negligible in comparison because they offer whatever capital they have leftover after expenses for a pittance.

So what’s the common man to do?

CNBC will say that the stock market is the only way to go.

What they will not tell you is that the stock market is ripe with risk. Getting into the stock market requires you to give up control of your capital and place it 100% at risk. All the while you have the hedge fund high frequency trading machines and the Wall Street insiders chomping at the bit to take your capital from you.

These forces are focused on the stock market every minute of every day, not just during business hours.
If you have the same amount of time and energy as well as access to the same amount of information as the insiders then you may be able to play the stock market and come out ahead in real terms.

We think that it is much more likely that you will only come out ahead in nominal terms at best if you come out ahead at all.

We think it a far better strategy to capitalize an IBC policy and then focus on employing that capital to develop sustainable sources of income.

The IBC policy ensures that your capital is generating a little bit of interest no matter what happens and your employment of that capital can be used to significantly increase the amount of interest coming in.

After all, what good is a 3.5% mortgage if you are not generating at least 3.6% in interest income consistently?

You see, interest rates are not terribly important – it is mastering the control of interest in vs. interest out that is truly the name of the game.