retirement planning Archives

The Stock Market Deception

submitted by jwithrow.

The stock market is comprised of numerous exchanges through which buyers and sellers can trade securities. The New York Stock Exchange is the world’s largest stock exchange followed by the NASDAQ. The Tokyo Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange are third and fourth in terms of market capitalization.

As we mentioned, the exchanges enable buyers and sellers to trade securities with one another.

We repeat this statement to emphasize the next one:

The exchanges are not where businesses raise capital unless an initial public offering (IPO) is taking place.

We think it is important to recognize this fact.

The vast majority of trades on a stock exchange are simply speculative – there is very little productive activity taking place. Even IPOs are usually not terribly productive as the intent is often not to raise capital for business operation but rather to enrich the owners and private investors.

So if most trades are just speculation then why do we view the stock market as a gauge of economic health? Why do we assume that the underlying economy is good when stock prices go up?

We do not assume that the economy is good when corn or oil prices go up. But corn and oil contracts are also traded on futures exchanges and there are speculators who profit when their price rises.

Conversely, why do we assume that the underlying economy is bad when stock prices go down?

Nothing real is destroyed when stock prices fall. Buildings don’t collapse. Equipment doesn’t break. Goods don’t go up in smoke. Engineers don’t lose their knowledge.

Maybe there was a time when stock prices somewhat reflected the financial health of individual companies, but those days are long gone. With mark to unicorn accounting, leveraged stock buy-backs, and all other manner of financial wizardry, CEO’s can and do manipulate stock prices regularly.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve has spent the past three decades ensuring that liquidity flows directly into the stock market so that equity prices continuously rise in unison over time.

The point is that there is a huge disconnect between the stock market and the productive sector that mainstream finance pays no attention to. In fact, mainstream finance has convinced most people that speculating in the stock market is the _only_ way to invest for retirement.

There may be a place for stocks within your asset allocation model, but it is important to recognize the stock market deception for what it is and understand the game you are playing if you do delve into the market. I would highly recommend enlisting the services of independent financial analysts if you do allocate some of your capital to the financial markets.

As we have touched on in a number of other essays here at Zenconomics, financial planning should be comprehensive and diversified according to your own unique circumstances. Simply amassing paper equities denominated in fiat currency is a very fragile plan.

As Nelson Nash says: “If you know what’s going on, you’ll know what to do.”

Be wary of the stock market deception and plan accordingly.

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Investing in Gold and Silver Bullion

submitted by jwithrow.

Investing in gold and silver bullion is, believe it or not, much easier than investing in stocks, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, or bonds.

If the concept of investing in gold and silver seems strange to you, it is only because the financial media has marginalized the precious metals in order to sell more paper equities and the mainstream media has associated the precious metals with paranoid dooms-dayers. And apparently you haven’t been reading our little blog here.

You see, gold is money. It has been for all of recorded history.

You can’t pay your taxes with gold because your government knows that no one would want government currency if you could. And then your government would be in big trouble.

We talk about the ‘why’ in more detail here and here so now let’s look at the ‘how’.

Gold and silver bullion is available in the form of coins and bars of varying weights and measures and purchases can be made either in person at a reputable coin dealer or online through an internet dealer.

The advantage of buying from a local coin dealer is that you can pay in cash anonymously and you can potentially develop a working relationship with the dealer. The downside is that you will have to pay your state sales tax on all bullion purchases made at a local dealer.

The advantage of buying online is that you don’t have to leave your home and you can avoid the state sales tax (for the time being, anyway). The downside is that you cannot purchase anonymously and there is a delay between purchase and delivery.

Gold and silver bullion can also be sold back to the same dealers – be sure to research their individual policy.

The IRS currently classifies precious metal bullion as a collectible and thus taxes the gain on sale at the collectible rate which is 28%. Keep this in mind if you choose to invest in gold and silver bullion, especially if you sacrifice anonymity and purchase online. Also, be sure to stay updated on the current tax laws regarding gold and silver bullion as they could change at any given time.

There are many strategies when it comes to investing in gold and silver but a general rule of thumb is to stay away from unique collectibles (numismatics) unless you are very knowledgeable in the field. The reason being is that numismatics carry a much higher premium than standard bullion from well-known mints but there is a much smaller market for these rare coins and thus they are much less liquid.

Our favorite strategy is to dollar-cost-average into both gold and silver periodically at the ratio of one American Gold Eagle to twenty American Silver Eagles.

MyRA-QE Taper Connection

submitted by jwithrow.

We have a question for you:

Is it a coincidence that the government has introduced the “myRA” plans just as the Federal Reserve has begun to taper its quantitative easing programs?

Let’s think this thing through for a minute.

We know:

China is now a net-seller of U.S. Treasuries so the Federal Reserve has had to step in and purchase U.S. Treasury Bonds in increasing quantities to support government spending.
The average American saves for retirement in a qualified retirement plan focusing primarily on mutual funds, exchange traded funds, and stocks with bonds comprising a small portion of the allocation.
The proposed myRA plans are designed to focus on U.S. Treasury Bonds.
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs have pumped massive amounts of liquidity into the system which has resulted in a broad increase of stock prices across the board.
Tapering QE will withdraw liquidity from the system which will almost certainly result in a broad decrease of stock prices across the board and quite possibly a severe stock market crash.
A falling stock market would likely cause many Americans to seek investment options that they deem “safer”.
The government is already hard-selling their myRA plans stating that there is “no risk to lose what you put in”.

Hmm.

Maybe our benevolent bureaucrats really do think that myRA plans will help the common man.

But we hold dearly to a personal mantra:

Maximize Capital,
Minimize Crap,
Never Trust the Government.

With that mantra echoing in our mind, we can’t help but be a little suspicious – something funny seems to be afoot.

What do you think?

Nominal Income vs. Real Income

submitted by jwithrow.

Most of us understand that inflation is a given in our world today… But not too many of us think about how inflation affects our income.

We tend to think of our income in nominal terms rather than in real terms because that’s what we can see. We can see the numbers. After all, nominal income is our income defined only by its dollar amount.

While this just seems like common sense, it’s not the real story. You can expose the flaw of nominal income when you compare it over periods of time.

Think about this. What if our income goes from $48,000 last year to $50,000 this year? That’s a 4% raise. Not too bad, right?

Well, let’s look at our income in real terms. Real income is income defined by its purchasing power. It is nominal income adjusted for inflation.

What if inflation rises to 4% this year?

Well, the means our $50,000 salary this year will have basically the same purchasing power as our $48,000 salary last year. In other words, we didn’t get ahead. Our raise wasn’t actually raise. That’s because our income did not go up in real terms… even though our paychecks were bigger.

That’s why it’s so important to see income in terms of purchasing power… Not in terms of nominal dollars.

The real story is that the American middle class has been stuck on a giant hamster wheel for decades now. Their paychecks keep getting bigger… But their purchasing power is destroyed by inflation. They are stuck.

This is why the Austrian School of Economics views inflation as an insidious tax. If nominal income kept pace with inflation then it would not be so bad. But wages have struggled to keep up with inflation since the early 70s.

Now, wages have done a decent job of keeping up with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). But this index has been adjusted several times to ignore food and fuel price increases. They fudge the numbers to make the CPI look better.

By the way, Social Security promises cost of living increases tied to the CPI… Retirees are getting a raw deal there.

This concept also exposes the retirement folly pushed by the financial services industry.

Have you seen those commercials about your “magic number”? They say you need a certain amount of dollars saved up for retirement to live securely off the income.

But if you think in terms of real income and purchasing power… It is impossible to pinpoint a magic number. Inflation will constantly eat into it. That’s why their magic number is just a carrot on a string.

So, the only way to truly take control of your own financial destiny is to think in real terms… And to recognize the nominal view of money for the illusion that it is.

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