The Three Debt Bombs of 2016

submitted by jwithrow.debt bombs

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
The Three Debt Bombs of 2016

December 29, 2015
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P closed out Monday at $2,056. Gold closed at $1,068 per ounce. Crude Oil closed at $36.81 per barrel, and the 10-year Treasury rate closed at 2.23%. Bitcoin is trading around $428 per BTC today.

Dear Journal,

Happy holidays and a belated Merry Christmas to you! We had quite the festive Christmas here at the Withrow Estate, but we are gearing down now. The family has dispersed, the gifts have been assimilated, the eggnog has run dry, and only the Christmas tree has survived wife Rachel’s de-decoration spree. In fact, the tree only survived thanks to your editor’s steadfast resistance.

Like the last of the Lighthouse Keepers, I diligently rise to light the tree first thing each morning – unwilling to abandon my responsibility in lieu of Christmas day’s passing. When the evening finds little Madison and wife Rachel sound asleep, I somberly extinguish the lights knowing full-well that the Christmas tree’s days are numbered.

Moving my gaze from this wonderful holiday season over to the financial markets: the financial press is celebrating the Fed’s 0.25% rate hike as an act of wisdom and prudence. The Federal Reserve has announced that they will carry out such a 0.25% rate hike four times per year for the next four years in an effort to get back to a more “normal” interest rate environment. Though the pundits will cheer this on as sensible, the likelihood of such a centrally planned endeavor coming to fruition is slim-to-none.

The purpose of the financial markets – and all markets – is price discovery. Prices are not something to be “fixed” by a higher authority; they are instead the result of countless individual actors in the market place. Prices form as buyers and sellers determine where they can agree to get the deal done. Continue reading “The Three Debt Bombs of 2016”

Why the U.S. Faces a Currency Crisis

submitted by jwithrow.currency crisis

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
Why the U.S. Faces a Currency Crisis

September 11, 2015
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P closed out Thursday at $1,952. Gold closed at $1,109 per ounce. Oil closed at $45.92 per barrel, and the 10-year Treasury rate closed at 2.22%. Bitcoin is trading around $239 per BTC today.

Dear Journal,

Little Maddie is now on the verge of becoming a toddler. She has mastered the art of the crawl and the leveraged stand-up. Walking is the next frontier, and she knows it. To aid Madison in her quest, wife Rachel bought her a plastic toy that doubles as an obnoxious farm animal noise making machine and a child’s walker. Somewhat to my surprise, Madison instantly knew what to do – she pulled herself up on the handles and walked six steps using the contraption to achieve balance.

It was an exciting moment for a first-time dad, but the philosopher’s mind has a tendency to wander and I couldn’t help but envision the future. What happens when, in fifty years perhaps, little Madison buys her mother a walker? Will Rachel instantly understand the intricacies of its function as her daughter once did fifty years prior? Time shall tell.

Moving on to the wonderful world of finance and economics… all of the focus is currently on the Federal Reserve. Having beaten interest rates down to zero and left them for dead for six years in an effort to prevent the market economy from liquidating the cronies, the Fed has recently been talking tough about raising rates. Some say the Fed will follow-through and raise rates next week. Others say by the end of the year. Still others say they can’t raise rates without torpedoing the debt markets. My suspicion is that the economy has become so dependent upon low interest rates that any interest rate hike would be minuscule and nothing but an effort to save face. Continue reading “Why the U.S. Faces a Currency Crisis”

What Will Be Gold’s Next Catalyst?

by Justin Spittler – Hard Assets Alliance :gold

Investors are finally coming to their senses. With the return of volatility, the complacency of the financial markets towards to the problems facing the global economy is now fracturing. That’s music to the ears of precious metals investors. And it’s a big reason gold started 2015 so hot.

Turmoil in Europe, in particular, has become too much to ignore. However, following the announcement by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to sever the franc’s peg to the euro and the landmark decision by the ECB to finally import quantitative easing (QE), investors are wondering where gold’s next push will come from.

Catalysts Outnumber Threats

Volatility is back. That’s bad news for most asset classes, yet positive for precious metals. Gold, in particular, shines brightest when fear trumps greed, and right now there are numerous forces conspiring to drive gold higher.

For starters, Europe is still very much a basket case. Relations between Ukraine and Russia remain tense, and the prospect of a “Grexit” looms large. There’s also a good chance that Draghi ups the ante on QE. Few analysts think that the €1.1 trillion bond-buying program will be enough to rejuvenate the continent’s much maligned economy.

A challenged eurozone isn’t the only probable catalyst for gold. The unexpected drop in energy prices could be foreshadowing a global economic slowdown. It also threatens to derail a US recovery that has leaned heavily on a domestic energy revolution, especially if prices stay low for long. JPMorgan estimates that three years of oil at $65 per barrel would lead to a 25% to 40% default rate across the US energy junk bond market.

Time will also reveal how resilient the US stock market rally is now that the Fed has removed the punch bowl. Let’s also not forget about China’s cooling economy. Same goes for continued bullion hoarding by central banks, increasing calls for repatriation, or a potential collapse of the Russian debt market, and that’s just on the demand side.

After registering all-time highs in 2011, gold dropped below $1,200 per ounce, or below the industry all-in sustaining cost of production. While total mine output inched higher during this weak price environment, nonferrous exploration budgets declined 45% between 2012 and 2014, according to metals consultancy group SNL.

Depressed prices have been especially unforgiving to junior miners, who play a key role in the global supply chain by venturing into uncharted territories in search of the next big deposit.

Total exploration budgets for junior miners fell 29% in 2014 after sliding 39% year over year in 2013 due to skittish investor interest.

Not even a dramatic price rally can undo years of greatly reduced exploration activity. In other words, the seeds of a supply crunch have been sowed.

Long Term Case for Gold Strengthens

There’s no guarantee that gold will maintain its momentum over the rest of the year but the scales are certainly tipped in its favor. Even commonly cited headwinds support the argument for owning gold over the long haul.

Consider the prospect of rising interest rates in the United States. Higher rates effectively increase the cost of owning gold, which pays no yield. Point taken, but a modest rate increase for bonds paying next to nothing isn’t going to make owning gold that much more expensive.

Further, Yellen will likely be extra patient with regard to raising rates. The Fed hasn’t lifted rates in nine years and doing so now would likely send the precarious recovery into a tailspin.

Sleep Easier With Precious Metals

If the first few weeks of 2015 are any indication, this will be an eventful year.

Global uncertainty has many investors on edge, but one can sleep easier with an appropriate allocation to precious metals. Just remember that today’s bargain prices won’t last forever.

Article originally posted in the February issue of Smart Metals Investor at HardAssetsAlliance.com.

Another Reason to Diversify into Precious Metals

by the Hard Assets Alliance Team:precious metals

Once upon a time, interest rates conveyed critical information about securities: the higher the rate, the riskier the investment.

Today, bond yields communicate little about underlying security risk and are arguably misleading. Consider the 1.57% yield on 10-year Spanish bonds. That level of return is hardly commensurate for a country suffering 23.9% unemployment.

The culprit for deceptive interest rates is a familiar one. Across the globe, central banks have suppressed rates to fend off crises or boost sagging economies—and zero percent is not the lowest band for this type of manipulation.

As an investor interested in precious metals, you’ve likely watched the growing number of countries shifting from zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) to negative interest rate policies (NIRP). Government bond yields in Germany, Switzerland, Japan, France, Holland, Denmark, and a handful of other countries have recently turned negative.

Negative real interest rates are nothing new, but we are talking about governments actually charging for the privilege of parking money with them. Yet another good reason to diversify into precious metals.

This shift from zero interest rate policies to negative interest rate policies epitomizes how detached financial markets have become from reality. More alarming, these radical polices exacerbate existing market distortions. By punishing bondholders, central bankers are forcing investors up the risk ladder, whether it be into junk bonds or equities.

You are better off tucking cash under your mattress than paying some profligate government to hold your money. But of course, there’s a better way. The utter insanity of a NIRP illustrates the critical importance of diversifying away from fiat currencies… and into previous metals.

Article originally posted in the February issue of Smart Metals Investor at HardAssetsAlliance.com.

Individual Solutions: Building Financial Resiliency

submitted by jwithrow.financial resiliency - individual solutions

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
Individual Solutions: Building Financial Resiliency

February 12, 2015
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P opened at $2,071 today. Gold is down to $1,226 per ounce. Oil is floating around $49 per barrel. Bitcoin is hanging around $221 per BTC, and the 10-year Treasury rate opened at 2.03% today.

Ten central banks have cut interest rates so far in 2015. The list includes: Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, India, Egypt, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, and Turkey. Additionally, both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are actively buying sovereign debt… with counterfeited currency created from thin air. The Federal Reserve is taking a break from this exercise after nearly six years of creating currency to shop at the U.S. Treasury and go yard-saling on Wall Street. Of course the $4.5 trillion worth of sovereign debt and mortgage-backed securities still sits on the Fed’s balance sheet in the interim.

All of this economic intervention is a concerted effort to stave off a major credit contraction. The central bankers talk about hitting certain GDP and unemployment rate metrics but that is all part of their dog and pony show. If creating currency out of thin air could actually grow an economy and create jobs then we would already live in a utopian paradise. But that’s just not how the world works.

Try as they may to avoid it, the coming credit contraction is inevitable. You see, the global monetary system has been fraudulent for a little more than four decades now. Gold officially anchored the global monetary system for two centuries prior to 1971. Then, in 1971, President Nixon’s administration acted to break away from two hundred years of tradition and the U.S. ended direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. Of course the “Great Society” welfare programs and the Vietnam War had a lot to do with this decision.

“Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today,” Nixon proclaimed on television with a straight face. “The effect of this action, in other words, will be to stabilize the dollar.”

Of course the exact opposite happened: the U.S. dollar fell off a cliff. Anyone living during the 70’s can attest to this. What was the price of a new home back then? A new car? A hamburger? The difference between what those items cost in 1971 and what they cost today represents how far the U.S. dollar has fallen in purchasing power.

How did this happen?

Well, with all ties to gold removed governments and central banks discovered they could conjure currency into existence to pay for anything they wanted. Tanks, fighter jets, food stamps, Medicare part D, $800 trash cans… no problem! So they embarked upon this historic credit expansion armed with a magical monetary system that provided them with money for nothing.

But governments weren’t the only beneficiaries. The companies making the tanks and the bombs made out like bandits. So did all of the bureaucrats who were hired as government expanded. And the people receiving welfare benefits found the system quite palatable as well. Pretty soon smart people learned that the best business in the world was to sell something to the U.S. government because it had unlimited money to spend. So they descended upon K Street like buzzards on road-kill and pretty soon the suburbs surrounding D.C. claimed home to six of the wealthiest ten counties in the U.S.

The champagne has been flowing up on the Hill and in the lobbyist offices on K Street for four decades now thanks mostly to the fraudulent fiat monetary system in place since 1971. The establishment hails their elastic currency system as a major success but theirs is a self-serving and short term view. Credit has been constantly expanding since 1971 but do we really think this can go on forever? Can we continue to run up debt, print money to pay interest on that debt, and then buy all of the fighter jets, disability checks, politicians, and cheap junk from China without ever having to think twice about it? If not, what happens when the credit contracts and we can no longer afford all of these expenditures?

The Austrian School of Economics tells us what the result of this madness will be: a “crack-up boom” followed by a monstrous bust as all of the bad debt and malinvestments are finally liquidated.

The crack-up boom occurs as the prices of assets and real goods are driven up to the moon by enormous amounts of excess currency conjured into existence in an attempt to perpetuate the credit expansion. After all, that new currency has to go somewhere. This scheme will work to stave off the credit contraction… until it doesn’t. Then cometh the bust.

While Austrian Economics can make the diagnosis, the timing of the bust cannot be predicted. There are too many interconnected factors at play. What’s important is that there is still time to build financial resiliency in advance. The cornerstone of financial resiliency is knowledge and understanding. Understand fiat money is an illusion. Understand the difference between money and wealth. Study Austrian Economics to get a feel for what’s really going on in the economy.

Once you understand how the monetary system actually works you can formulate a customized asset allocation model based upon your personal circumstances.

A resilient asset allocation model will consist of cash (20-30%), precious metals (10-30%), real estate (30-60%), and strategic equities (10-15%).

At minimum you should carry enough cash to cover at least 6-12 months of expenses. Distressed assets will go on sale when then bust hits so any cash in excess of your reserve fund can be used to acquire these distressed assets (real estate, stocks, businesses, etc.) when they are cheap.

Your precious metals allocation should consist of physical gold and silver bullion stored at home or in a legal segregated account overseas. Never store precious metals in a domestic bank vault – Americans learned this the hard way back in the 30’s when the banks closed and FDR raided the vaults to confiscate gold. Remember, precious metals are insurance not speculation. The price of gold (and silver) will skyrocket in terms of fiat currency, but its purchasing power will remain relatively constant just as it has for thousands of years. Those who save in fiat currency will see their wealth evaporate as the credit contraction unfolds while those who hold precious metals will weather the storm. J.P Morgan testified before Congress in 1912: “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” Don’t be fooled.

Real estate presents a unique opportunity currently as we are living during a period of historically low interest rates and lenders are willing to offer long term mortgages at these low rates. This provides a tremendous opportunity to lock in these low rates on real estate for thirty years during which time interest rates will inevitably rise significantly.

We firmly believe stocks should make up the smallest percentage of a resilient portfolio under current economic conditions. Stockholders have been the primary beneficiaries of the massive credit expansion and all of the easy-money chicanery over the past several years. Financial institutions have poured new money into the equities markets and publicly-traded companies have used a ton of excess cash to buy back shares of their own stock. As a result current stock valuations do not reflect the underlying health of the economy. Though stocks will run for a bit longer, we are closer to the end than the beginning of the bull cycle. We think the exception is in the resource and commodity sector, however. The stocks of well-managed companies in this sector could do extremely well over the next few years as the global financial system continues to falter.

Nobody can control macroeconomic conditions but we can each control our individual response to them. Building financial resiliency by constructing a diversified portfolio across several asset classes is an individual solution to a collective problem. Financial resiliency is just half of the picture, however. Tomorrow we will look at what we call home resiliency.

Until the morrow,

Signature

 

 

 

 

 

Joe Withrow

Wayward Philosopher

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the “Great Reset” and the paradigm shift underway please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com/. The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

The Folly of the Fed’s Central Planning

by Ron Paul – Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity:Ron Paul

Over the last 100 years the Fed has had many mandates and policy changes in its pursuit of becoming the chief central economic planner for the United States. Not only has it pursued this utopian dream of planning the US economy and financing every boondoggle conceivable in the welfare/warfare state, it has become the manipulator of the premier world reserve currency.

As Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke explained to me, the once profoundly successful world currency – gold – was no longer money. This meant that he believed, and the world has accepted, the fiat dollar as the most important currency of the world, and the US has the privilege and responsibility for managing it. He might even believe, along with his Fed colleagues, both past and present, that the fiat dollar will replace gold for millennia to come. I remain unconvinced.

At its inception the Fed got its marching orders: to become the ultimate lender of last resort to banks and business interests. And to do that it needed an “elastic” currency. The supporters of the new central bank in 1913 were well aware that commodity money did not “stretch” enough to satisfy the politician’s appetite for welfare and war spending. A printing press and computer, along with the removal of the gold standard, would eventually provide the tools for a worldwide fiat currency. We’ve been there since 1971 and the results are not good.

Many modifications of policy mandates occurred between 1913 and 1971, and the Fed continues today in a desperate effort to prevent the total unwinding and collapse of a monetary system built on sand. A storm is brewing and when it hits, it will reveal the fragility of the entire world financial system.

The Fed and its friends in the financial industry are frantically hoping their next mandate or strategy for managing the system will continue to bail them out of each new crisis.

The seeds were sown with the passage of the Federal Reserve Act in December 1913. The lender of last resort would target special beneficiaries with its ability to create unlimited credit. It was granted power to channel credit in a special way. Average citizens, struggling with a mortgage or a small business about to go under, were not the Fed’s concern. Commercial, agricultural, and industrial paper was to be bought when the Fed’s friends were in trouble and the economy needed to be propped up. At its inception the Fed was given no permission to buy speculative financial debt or U.S. Treasury debt.

It didn’t take long for Congress to amend the Federal Reserve Act to allow the purchase of US debt to finance World War I and subsequently all the many wars to follow. These changes eventually led to trillions of dollars being used in the current crisis to bail out banks and mortgage companies in over their heads with derivative speculations and worthless mortgage-backed securities.

It took a while to go from a gold standard in 1913 to the unbelievable paper bailouts that occurred during the crash of 2008 and 2009.

In 1979 the dual mandate was proposed by Congress to solve the problem of high inflation and high unemployment, which defied the conventional wisdom of the Phillips curve that supported the idea that inflation could be a trade-off for decreasing unemployment. The stagflation of the 1970s was an eye-opener for all the establishment and government economists. None of them had anticipated the serious financial and banking problems in the 1970s that concluded with very high interest rates.

That’s when the Congress instructed the Fed to follow a “dual mandate” to achieve, through monetary manipulation, a policy of “stable prices” and “maximum employment.” The goal was to have Congress wave a wand and presto the problem would be solved, without the Fed giving up power to create money out of thin air that allows it to guarantee a bailout for its Wall Street friends and the financial markets when needed.

The dual mandate was really a triple mandate. The Fed was also instructed to maintain “moderate long-term interest rates.” “Moderate” was not defined. I now have personally witnessed nominal interest rates as high as 21% and rates below 1%. Real interest rates today are actually below zero.

The dual, or the triple mandate, has only compounded the problems we face today. Temporary relief was achieved in the 1980s and confidence in the dollar was restored after Volcker raised interest rates up to 21%, but structural problems remained.

Nevertheless, the stock market crashed in 1987 and the Fed needed more help. President Reagan’s Executive Order 12631 created the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, also known as the Plunge Protection Team. This Executive Order gave more power to the Federal Reserve, Treasury, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Securities and Exchange Commission to come to the rescue of Wall Street if market declines got out of hand. Though their friends on Wall Street were bailed out in the 2000 and 2008 panics, this new power obviously did not create a sound economy. Secrecy was of the utmost importance to prevent the public from seeing just how this “mandate” operated and exactly who was benefiting.

Since 2008 real economic growth has not returned. From the viewpoint of the central economic planners, wages aren’t going up fast enough, which is like saying the currency is not being debased rapidly enough. That’s the same explanation they give for prices not rising fast enough as measured by the government-rigged Consumer Price Index. In essence it seems like they believe that making the cost of living go up for average people is a solution to the economic crisis. Rather bizarre!

The obsession now is to get price inflation up to at least a 2% level per year. The assumption is that if the Fed can get prices to rise, the economy will rebound. This too is monetary policy nonsense.

If the result of a congressional mandate placed on the Fed for moderate and stable interest rates results in interest rates ranging from 0% to 21%, then believing the Fed can achieve a healthy economy by getting consumer prices to increase by 2% per year is a pie-in-the-sky dream. Money managers CAN’T do it and if they could it would achieve nothing except compounding the errors that have been driving monetary policy for a hundred years.

A mandate for 2% price inflation is not only a goal for the central planners in the United States but for most central bankers worldwide.

It’s interesting to note that the idea of a 2% inflation rate was conceived 25 years ago in New Zealand to curtail double-digit price inflation. The claim was made that since conditions improved in New Zealand after they lowered their inflation rate to 2% that there was something magical about it. And from this they assumed that anything lower than 2% must be a detriment and the inflation rate must be raised. Of course, the only tool central bankers have to achieve this rate is to print money and hope it flows in the direction of raising the particular prices that the Fed wants to raise.

One problem is that although newly created money by central banks does inflate prices, the central planners can’t control which prices will increase or when it will happen. Instead of consumer prices rising, the price inflation may go into other areas, as determined by millions of individuals making their own choices. Today we can find very high prices for stocks, bonds, educational costs, medical care and food, yet the CPI stays under 2%.

The CPI, though the Fed currently wants it to be even higher, is misreported on the low side. The Fed’s real goal is to make sure there is no opposition to the money printing press they need to run at full speed to keep the financial markets afloat. This is for the purpose of propping up in particular stock prices, debt derivatives, and bonds in order to take care of their friends on Wall Street.

This “mandate” that the Fed follows, unlike others, is of their own creation. No questions are asked by the legislators, who are always in need of monetary inflation to paper over the debt run up by welfare/warfare spending. There will be a day when the obsession with the goal of zero interest rates and 2% price inflation will be laughed at by future economic historians. It will be seen as just as silly as John Law’s inflationary scheme in the 18th century for perpetual wealth for France by creating the Mississippi bubble – which ended in disaster. After a mere two years, 1719 to 1720, of runaway inflation Law was forced to leave France in disgrace. The current scenario will not be precisely the same as with this giant bubble but the consequences will very likely be much greater than that which occurred with the bursting of the Mississippi bubble.

The fiat dollar standard is worldwide and nothing similar to this has ever existed before. The Fed and all the world central banks now endorse the monetary principles that motivated John Law in his goal of a new paradigm for French prosperity. His thesis was simple: first increase paper notes in order to increase the money supply in circulation. This he claimed would revitalize the finances of the French government and the French economy. His theory was no more complicated than that.

This is exactly what the Federal Reserve has been attempting to do for the past six years. It has created $4 trillion of new money, and used it to buy government Treasury bills and $1.7 trillion of worthless home mortgages. Real growth and a high standard of living for a large majority of Americans have not occurred, whereas the Wall Street elite have done quite well. This has resulted in aggravating the persistent class warfare that has been going on for quite some time.

The Fed has failed at following its many mandates, whether legislatively directed or spontaneously decided upon by the Fed itself – like the 2% price inflation rate. But in addition, to compound the mischief caused by distorting the much-needed market rate of interest, the Fed is much more involved than just running the printing presses. It regulates and manages the inflation tax. The Fed was the chief architect of the bailouts in 2008. It facilitates the accumulation of government debt, whether it’s to finance wars or the welfare transfer programs directed at both rich and poor. The Fed provides a backstop for the speculative derivatives dealings of the banks considered too big to fail. Together with the FDIC’s insurance for bank accounts, these programs generate a huge moral hazard while the Fed obfuscates monetary and economic reality.

The Federal Reserve reports that it has over 300 PhD’s on its payroll. There are hundreds more in the Federal Reserve’s District Banks and many more associated scholars under contract at many universities. The exact cost to get all this wonderful advice is unknown. The Federal Reserve on its website assures the American public that these economists “represent an exceptional diverse range of interest in specific area of expertise.” Of course this is with the exception that gold is of no interest to them in their hundreds and thousands of papers written for the Fed.

This academic effort by subsidized learned professors ensures that our college graduates are well-indoctrinated in the ways of inflation and economic planning. As a consequence too, essentially all members of Congress have learned these same lessons.

Fed policy is a hodgepodge of monetary mismanagement and economic interference in the marketplace. Sadly, little effort is being made to seriously consider real monetary reform, which is what we need. That will only come after a major currency crisis.

I have quite frequently made the point about the error of central banks assuming that they know exactly what interest rates best serve the economy and at what rate price inflation should be. Currently the obsession with a 2% increase in the CPI per year and a zero rate of interest is rather silly.

In spite of all the mandates, flip-flopping on policy, and irrational regulatory exuberance, there’s an overwhelming fear that is shared by all central bankers, on which they dwell day and night. That is the dreaded possibility of DEFLATION.

A major problem is that of defining the terms commonly used. It’s hard to explain a policy dealing with deflation when Keynesians claim a falling average price level – something hard to measure – is deflation, when the Austrian free-market school describes deflation as a decrease in the money supply.

The hysterical fear of deflation is because deflation is equated with the 1930s Great Depression and all central banks now are doing everything conceivable to prevent that from happening again through massive monetary inflation. Though the money supply is rapidly rising and some prices like oil are falling, we are NOT experiencing deflation.

Under today’s conditions, fighting the deflation phantom only prevents the needed correction and liquidation from decades of an inflationary/mal-investment bubble economy.

It is true that even though there is lots of monetary inflation being generated, much of it is not going where the planners would like it to go. Economic growth is stagnant and lots of bubbles are being formed, like in stocks, student debt, oil drilling, and others. Our economic planners don’t realize it but they are having trouble with centrally controlling individual “human action.”

Real economic growth is being hindered by a rational and justified loss of confidence in planning business expansions. This is a consequence of the chaos caused by the Fed’s encouragement of over-taxation, excessive regulations, and diverting wealth away from domestic investments and instead using it in wealth-consuming and dangerous unnecessary wars overseas. Without the Fed monetizing debt, these excesses would not occur.

Lessons yet to be learned:

1. Increasing money and credit by the Fed is not the same as increasing wealth. It in fact does the opposite.

2. More government spending is not equivalent to increasing wealth.

3. Liquidation of debt and correction in wages, salaries, and consumer prices is not the monster that many fear.

4. Corrections, allowed to run their course, are beneficial and should not be prolonged by bailouts with massive monetary inflation.

5. The people spending their own money is far superior to the government spending it for them.

6. Propping up stock and bond prices, the current Fed goal, is not a road to economic recovery.

7. Though bailouts help the insiders and the elite 1%, they hinder the economic recovery.

8. Production and savings should be the source of capital needed for economic growth.

9. Monetary expansion can never substitute for savings but guarantees mal–investment.

10. Market rates of interest are required to provide for the economic calculation necessary for growth and reversing an economic downturn.

11. Wars provide no solution to a recession/depression. Wars only make a country poorer while war profiteers benefit.

12. Bits of paper with ink on them or computer entries are not money – gold is.

13. Higher consumer prices per se have nothing to do with a healthy economy.

14. Lower consumer prices should be expected in a healthy economy as we experienced with computers, TVs, and cell phones.

All this effort by thousands of planners in the Federal Reserve, Congress, and the bureaucracy to achieve a stable financial system and healthy economic growth has failed.

It must be the case that it has all been misdirected. And just maybe a free market and a limited government philosophy are the answers for sorting it all out without the economic planners setting interest and CPI rate increases.

A simpler solution to achieving a healthy economy would be to concentrate on providing a “SOUND DOLLAR” as the Founders of the country suggested. A gold dollar will always outperform a paper dollar in duration and economic performance while holding government growth in check. This is the only monetary system that protects liberty while enhancing the opportunity for peace and prosperity.

Article originally posted at The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity.

Macroeconomic Trends

submitted by jwithrow.trends

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
Macroeconomic Trends

November 18, 2014
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P opened the day at $2,040. Gold is up to $1,193. Oil dipped just below $75. Bitcoin fell slightly to $379, and the 10-year Treasury rate is 2.32% today. All seems to be calm in the financial world for the moment…

In other news: little Madison is one month old this week!

I have spent many of the past twenty-nine evenings contemplating the intricacies of the infant experience. Maddie’s infant mind is as mysterious to me as this crazy world must be to her.

What does she see as she gazes out from those blue-grey eyes? Why does her attention seem to be drawn to the top corner of the room? How does she interpret all of the data received by her sensory organs? What can she possibly be dreaming of while in the throes of R.E.M. sleep? How can she tolerate her mother’s off-tune singing all day long?

Some evenings, when especially sleep-deprived, I can imagine an older Madison filling her father in on all the details. “I tried to tell mom to stop singing those ridiculous songs to me but I just couldn’t find the words”, future Madison would say. But then I come-to and accept that I will never have the definitive answers to my reckonings.

Not one to be discouraged, I then focus my reckonings on slightly more concrete topics.

What will the world look like eighteen years from now when Maddie is ready to go her own way?

Fortunately I don’t need to rely on future Madison to answer this question; I can make an educated guess by projecting current macroeconomic trends out to their logical conclusion. I have been tailing macroeconomic trends for several years now and no matter how close I follow behind, they always seem to lead me to one inevitable conclusion: the debt-fueled, fiat-driven, consumption-oriented, entitlement-laden, militarily-enforced Pax Americana is coming to an end.

Not a very popular thing to say in today’s hyper-sensitive politically correct world, I know. But I say this as a cold observation with no emotion attached. Just look at the prominent trends:

  • The U.S. government took more than 200 years to run up $1 trillion in debt. The national debt has since exploded to nearly $18 trillion in less than 30 years with $9 trillion of that coming from 2005-present.
  • The U.S. monetary base was relatively stable from 1781-1971. It has since exploded to the point where the U.S. dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power.
  • Consumer debt has skyrocketed right along side public debt since 1971.
  • When calculated according to GAAP, the U.S. debt is actually north of $200 trillion and growing. This figure is predominantly made up of Social Security and Medicare unfunded liabilities.
  • Demographics show that roughly 10,000 people with celebrate their 65th birthday every single day for the next ten years. One can safely assume they will all be interested in signing up for Medicare and Social Security benefits.
  • The 10-year Treasury rate has been steadily declining since the late 1980’s with the help of the Federal Reserve. Despite record-low interest rates, the U.S. government paid out more than $420 billion in interest payments in 2013. Even a slight uptick in interest rates will dramatically impede the Treasury’s ability to service the national debt.
  • America was founded upon the principle of non-intervention. “Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations; entangling alliances with none”, said Jefferson. The United States has systematically morphed into a military empire with more than 300 military bases in over 170 countries. Militarism puts a measurable strain on the budget and a less measurable strain on the morality of society.

It doesn’t take much analytical skill to see that current macroeconomic trends are not slowing: they are growing exponentially. One only needs to utilize a sliver of common sense to understand that exponentially expanding trends are not sustainable. The trends don’t tell me what the world looks like in eighteen years but they do clue me in on what it doesn’t look like. And what it doesn’t look like is the world of the past seventy years.

Hmm. So, how best to to help Maddie prepare for adult life in a world that does not yet exist?

That’s the problem with philosophical contemplations: rather than answers they tend to lead only to more questions. Fortunately, questioning is the philosopher’s strong suit.

Until the morrow,
Signature

 

 

 

 

 

Joe Withrow
Wayward Philosopher

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the “Great Reset” and regaining individual sovereignty please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com/. The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

On the National Debt

submitted by jwithrow.National Debt

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
On the National Debt

October 7, 2014
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P is down to $1,953, gold is up to $1,212, oil is up to $89, bitcoin is up to $330, and the 10-year is down to 2.38%.

Looks like the 10-year Treasury rate is still well-corralled for the moment. And gold is still on sale.

Yesterday we examined a few of the traps cleverly hidden for infants coming into the world at this time – prompted by wife Rachel and my expectations of a little girl named Madison set to begin her journey here on Earth within the next few days or weeks.  Today let’s look at the overt trap that boldly claims the right to little Madison’s future earnings: the national debt.

It is popular today for politicians to speak out against the national debt and boldly claim that ‘we’ (they love this ‘we’ business) need to balance the government’s budget and begin to pay the debt down.  This sounds great and people will vote for you for making such a statement, but there are two problems this leaves unaddressed – one based in economics and one based in morality.

First, the economic problem: the national debt is not $17.75 trillion as advertised.  The national debt is actually closer to $200 trillion if you calculate it according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) which require you to record all future liabilities on your balance sheet.  Most of these future liabilities that are not included in the official debt figure are Social Security and Medicare commitments.  These future commitments are completely unfunded which means there exists no underlying revenue support and no asset backing.  The only way these future commitments can be met is if enough money comes into the Social Security and Medicare programs versus going out.  Demographics tell us that 10,000 Baby Boomers will retire EVERY SINGLE DAY for the next ten years, however, which suggests that a huge number of people are going to move from being contributors to these programs to recipients.

Oh, and both Social Security and Medicare already run annual deficits.

These politicians must be expecting quite a bit from my little Madison if they plan to balance the budget and pay down the debt with her future earnings.

But they don’t actually plan to balance the budget and pay down the debt.  The simple fact is it can’t honestly be done without defaulting on the existing commitments in some capacity.  There’s just too much debt and not enough production.  Which leads us to the moral problem: this system is incredibly, unbelievably immoral.

Why should anyone be taxed and forced to pay for anything against their will?  What kind of system assigns debt to infants from the moment they draw their first breath in this world?  What kind of system incentivizes debt, dishonesty, consumption, and exploitation while punishing honesty and production?

My answer: a really bad one.

So did the economic problem lead to the moral problem or vice versa?  I am not sure but history does suggest that dishonest fiat money seems to always undermine the morality and stability of society.

I will have more thoughts on that in a later entry.  In the meantime be sure to order a copy of The Individual is Rising for a more in depth look at these economic problems, some financial strategies to prepare for the Great Reset, and more.

Focusing our attention back on the debt-trap: how best to prepare Maddie for life in a society that plans to confiscate her future earnings to pay for the immorality of earlier generations?

It is a shame that I have to spend any time at all on this question here in what is supposed to be the “Land of the Free”.  The more I think about it, the more I become convinced that education is the key to preparing our children for the world that awaits them.

Not education of the public kind, however.  It looks to me like the public schools are setting children up to be victims of the immoral System.  The public school system fosters a herd mentality and requires students to subordinate themselves to “authority” at all times.  Such an environment is not going to stimulate the creativity and self-confidence necessary to thrive in a society that expects the next generation to pay the debts of the previous.  Instead, this method of education is going to condition students to happily embrace their servitude to the System as it pillages the fruits of their labor in the name of the “common good”.

Far better to create an individualized educational experience tailored to Madison’s unique skills and interests.  Instead of forcing subjects upon her, why not let her guide her own education?  Rachel and I will probably need to do most of the guiding in the early years, but I suspect Madison will be plenty capable of determining her own path as she grows and matures.  Enabling self-education in this manner will certainly do a better job of preparing her for adult-hood than the government school system that conditions students to always seek guidance and permission from “experts” instead of trusting their own abilities.

Of course this self-education will need to be blended with social activities as well.  Fortunately, one can find all manner of groups, clubs, and activities using a simple internet search these days so I don’t see this being much of a problem.  What will Madison like to do?  Dance?  Aikido?  Art?  Music?  Softball?  All of the above?

The world will be her oyster…

More to come,

Signature

 

 

 

 

 

Joe Withrow
Wayward Philosopher

 

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the Great Reset and regaining individual sovereignty please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com.  The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

Maddie Coming Soon

submitted by jwithrow.Maddie

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
Maddie Coming Soon

October 6, 2014
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P opened at $1,975, gold is down to $1,190, oil is hanging around $88, bitcoin back up slightly to $327, and the 10-year is checking in at 2.44%.  While this wouldn’t be a bad time to pick up an ounce or two of the yellow metal, the 10-year Treasury rate is what’s really worth keeping an eye on.  How long can the Fed keep rates suppressed?  Some say forever; some say until December.  I say “I don’t know”.  Assuming the folks who say forever are wrong, what then happens when rates go up? Some say the Fed can manage the increase in a gradual fashion; some say the poor 10-year Treasury has been cooped up for so long that it will blow through the roof once free of its chains.  I say “I don’t know” again but I tend to think the latter is probably more likely.  And then…

Shifting gears from economic future to family future, wife Rachel is 39.5 weeks pregnant as of today!  Coming soon: a little girl. How exciting!  We shall call her “Maddie”.  With Rachel busy working on her nesting list, I close my eyes and try to catch a glimpse of the future that awaits little Madison.

Look at all those traps.

Heavy metal toxins in infant vaccines? Round-up ready GMO fruits and vegetables?  Ouch.

Government-run public school system designed to feed the administrators and instill collectivist ideals in the children?  Probably best to steer clear.

Skyrocketing college tuition?  Will there even be jobs left in this economy in twenty-some years?

Opening my eyes, I am confident that we have a pretty good plan to help Maddie tackle the college problem: an infinite banking insurance policy paired with a “hands-off” approach.  We can fund a life insurance policy for Madison as soon as she turns two weeks old.  With an annual premium of $3,000 per year, the policy will have a cash value of at least $60,000 by the time Madison reaches adult-hood.  Then we sign the policy over to her and say follow your passion.  Want to travel the world?  Go for it.  Want to start a business?  Here’s your working capital.  Want to go to college?  No need for student loans.

Of course that $60,000 cash value figure is based on today’s purchasing power.  I am confident the insurance company will be able to keep up with inflation via long-term investments and sound actuarial pricing on new policies such that Madison’s policy dividends will keep up with inflation also.  Or maybe the dollar crashes and the insurance industry has to denominate their policies in gold in order to survive.  Wouldn’t that be something!  Then we wouldn’t need to worry about inflation because we would be using REAL money again!

Or maybe this strategy blows up in our face… who knows.  We examine the Infinite Banking Concept (IBC) in more detail in our book “The Individual is Rising” – you can get it here.

So what is college for anyway?  As best I can tell, people go to college to receive a degree that says they went to college.  Then they try to get a job where they can sit behind a desk all day.  That’s pretty much it.  I suspect there was a little more to it years ago (early-to-mid 20th century?) and of course there are some exceptions – especially in the specialized fields like engineering.

Think about it.  What is the first thing people say when they go to a job interview?  “I have a degree in such and such”.  This is supposed to be a strong selling point for the potential employee… but is it really?  What does having a degree actually tell you about someone?  You can probably safely assume that this person has spent a fair amount of time drinking cheap beer.  I don’t know that you can really deduce much else.  Doesn’t everybody have a degree these days?  Doesn’t the government finance ninety-some percent of those degrees?

Doesn’t sound like much of a selling point to me.

We live in a ‘have’ oriented society – we place a premium on ‘having’ things.  A degree, a nice car, a big house, a fancy wardrobe, you name it.  We tend to link our own self-worth to what we ‘have’.  We shouldn’t do that.  Much more important than ‘having’ is ‘doing’.  What are you doing to make your life better?  What are you doing to make your family’s life better?  But wait, there’s something even more important: ‘being’.  What is the nature of your character?  Are you a kind and strong-willed person?  Can others count on you to be honest?  Do you understand that your self-worth is derived from what’s within?  Do you recognize how powerful and wise you truly are?

Having is nice.  Doing is great.  Being is essential.  Focus on the being and everything else will fall into place.  This is the one lesson I hope my daughter learns from me; any other lessons imparted from me to her will be of lesser importance.  I also firmly believe it is a two-way street… I can’t wait to find out what she has to teach me also!

Back to the present: looks like I have some tasks assigned to me on wife’s nesting list.  It is best not to keep her waiting.

Until the morrow,

Signature

 

 

 

 

 

Joe Withrow
Wayward Philosopher

 

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the Great Reset and regaining individual sovereignty please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com.  The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

Debt Impedes Economic Recovery

submitted by jwithrow.Great Seal

Debt is nothing more than an obligation to pay for present spending with future earnings.

A little bit of debt used to increase future earnings is a good thing. A little bit of debt used to increase present spending at the expense of future earnings is not a very good thing. A lot of debt used to increase present spending at the expense of future earnings is a good way to make it very difficult for there to be any earnings in the future at all.

At the macroeconomic level, the U.S. has chosen option three. Japan and Europe have done the same.

The great thing about economics is that there is a ‘response’ system built in that maintains a sort of chaotic order in the general market.

When there is significant capital formation within the system, interest rates go down. Decreasing interest rates send a signal that it is a good time to borrow so homes are purchased and businesses expand.

Interest rates then rise as more debt is taken on and thus capital available diminishes. This sends a signal that it is not a good time to borrow so mortgages are paid down and business debt is reduced. This leads to gradual capital formation within the system that will trigger a decrease in interest rates and the cycle perpetuates.

But guess what happens when you have an Ivy League graduate that thinks it is his job to force interest rates lower and keep them suppressed?

That’s right! The market does not receive the proper signal and it looks like it is still a good time to borrow. So even more homes are purchased and businesses keep on expanding.

Then we get the idea that home prices should always go up, stock prices should always go up, businesses should always expand, and GDP should always grow.

And we end up with more debt.

U.S. debt has grown by more than 60% since the financial crisis began in 2008. Global debt has grown by more than 40% in the same time period.

It turns out that a problem of too much debt cannot be solved by taking on more debt.

The events of 2008 sent a signal that it was time to stop borrowing and to liquidate debt but we didn’t listen. The economy will undoubtedly blow up again and the next crisis will be even bigger because the debt is now even bigger.

The only way for the economy to truly recover is for a mass-liquidation of debt to occur. Until then we can expect the Fed to keep fudging the numbers and blaming economic stagnancy on the snow.

We happen to like snow and find it to be much more desirable than the Fed, both economically and ascetically.